Can GDP, CPI, and U.S. Treasury Bonds predict a recession?
Seasonality of the U.S. Economy
Posted on August 27, 2020
Can GDP, CPI, and U.S. Treasury Bonds predict a recession?
Seasonality of the U.S. Economy
Posted on August 27, 2020
It is often said we can’t predict the weather. This may be true but it is possible to predict the seasons. The focus of this article was to determine if there is a predictable seasonality to the U.S. economy. If so, can the seasonality of an economy predict a recession? Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Hedgefund said that the two most import indicators of an economy are growth and inflation. In this article I explain the model I built upon this theory. To read about it visit this link and view my article on Medium. To see where the magic happens visit my Colab Notebook link.